A projection model used by the Kenosha County Division of Health suggests that current public health measures are “flattening the curve” and continued social distancing would significantly reduce total infections and hospitalizations locally.
Without the order, which has been in place since March 25, total infections within the county could have topped 90,000 and hospitals would have seen a devastating surge in patients, the Division of Health analysis concluded.
With the order now set to continue through May 26, the model finds that Kenosha County’s new COVID-19 peak date would be on approximately June 3, with 2,480 people infected. Figuring a 20% hospitalization rate and a 30% intensive care rate of hospitalizations, local hospitals would be able to manage the number of patients needing care.
The projected number of hospitalizations on that June 3 peak date is 496, with 149 patients in intensive care. Without Safer-at-Home in place for the last four weeks, the county would have seen 6,800 hospitalizations at what would have been the peak date of April 5, with more than 2,000 of those patients in intensive care.
In short, since the March 25 state order was put into place, the projected number of infections has had the chance to reduce by almost 50%, said Dr. Jen Freiheit, Kenosha County health officer.
“We know coronavirus has brought painful disruption and distress for residents. However, these numbers tell us that what we’re doing is working,” Freiheit said. “We know social distancing is tough and comes with incredible sacrifices. But steps we’re all taking to maintain social distancing could save the lives of people we know and people who are important to us.”
Kenosha County’s emergency response continues to focus on strengthening the health care system’s ability to meet the coming surge. State and local health officials are working with hospitals and other health care partners to mobilize the health care workforce, keep workers safe and expand capacity.
However, the public’s ability to maintain social distancing will be the most important factor in determining whether Kenosha County prevents local hospitals from becoming overwhelmed by COVID-19 admissions, Freiheit said.
“We all must continue to put Safer at Home into practice,” Freiheit said.
For more information on COVID-19 in Kenosha County, please visit www.kenoshacounty.org/covid-19.
To view the news release, including data charts, please click here.